PP and Vox come close to 200 seats and together secure a majority in nine out of every ten simulations produced by EL PAÍS's model, according to the newspaper's data newsletter.
The results indicate that preventing a right-wing government would demand a considerably larger recovery from the left than the one it achieved in 2023.
The figures appear in the newsletter written by Kiko Llaneras, which the paper presents as a subscriber-only bulletin offering data and explanations of current affairs.